"no more than" vs "not more than"

> Any difference in meaning between these two sentences?
>
> "His victory in the final was no more convincing than I had expected."
> "His victory in the final was not more convincing than I had expected."
>
> Note that the two sentences below do have difference:
> You are not more careful than he is. 你不如他仔细。
> You are no more careful than he is. 你和他一样不仔细。

That makes perfect sense. But that distinction doesn't seem to apply to the case here: "His victory in the final was (no|not) more convincing than I had expected." I'm not sure, but if I have to think of an explanation, maybe it's because the part after "than" is not a direct object. Consider:

"His victory in the final was (no|not) more convincing than hers."

In this case, "no more convincing" implies his and hers are equally unconvincing, while "not more convincing" says her victory is more convincing.